Why does Macron leap into the void with early elections in France?

The political chessboard is shaking in France. The first results of the European elections confirmed what had been predicted for months: a historic advance by the far right. In response to his party’s crushing defeat, Emmanuel Macron announced the dissolution of the National Assembly that same Sunday and the calling of legislative elections for the following 30 June and 7 July, without waiting for all the ballots to be counted.

“At the end of the day, I cannot pretend that nothing has happened. The rise of nationalists and demagogues is a threat not just to our country, but also to our place in Europe and to France’s place in the world,” the president said. “This decision is, above all, an act of faith: faith in you, my dear compatriots, in the ability of the French people to make the right decisions for themselves and for future generations.”

The announcement was celebrated a few minutes later by Marine Le Pen, who responded to the president and put forward the victorious leader of her party’s list, Jordan Bardella. “The President of the Republic, responding to Jordan Bardella’s call, has announced the dissolution of the National Assembly and the return of the people to the polls,” said Le Pen, who called for a campaign to be held so that the extreme right could gain a majority. The MP imposed a cohabitation government on Macron, in which Bardella would be prime minister.

Coziness with the far right?

Macron’s move – which some compare to that of Pedro Sánchez after the defeats in the 2023 municipal and regional elections – is risky. Although his position is not at stake (this is decided in the presidential elections), a poor result for his coalition in the legislative elections could force him to appoint a prime minister from another party such as the progressive coalition Los Republicans (right), Nupes or even Le Pen’s Agrupación Nacional (AN) in an agreement known in France as cohabitation.

In the current French political system, the prime minister is a member of the party that has the majority of deputies, even if he has a different political orientation than the president. This was the case of the Mitterrand-Chirac coalition of 1986 or Chirac-Jospin of 1998.

If the far-right manages to become the largest parliamentary group after the next election, Macron will almost certainly appoint a far-right prime minister and France will go into this coexistence. Although it won the elections this Sunday, Le Pen’s party does not guarantee this scenario. Before the dissolution, the far-right party had 89 out of 577 seats in the National Assembly and there are currently no polls available that measure its strength for the legislative elections.

The last legislative elections were already a turning point for the National Agglomeration, gaining so many representatives in elections that traditionally overcame a major obstacle for the party: since each seat was decided in a direct double-round election, by forming alliances in the second round, centre- and left-wing formations could create a “dam” against the extreme right.

The two-round voting system has not traditionally favored Le Pen’s party, but in 2022 this barrier fell for the first time in several constituencies and now the results of the European elections suggest that the number of seats could increase: this time the far-right party has received the most votes even in regions with little presence, notably on the Atlantic coast and the Paris region (although not in the interior of the capital).

In this context, some analysts are questioning whether the so-called “Republican Front” will continue to work to counter the extreme right in France. “A leap into the void,” the paper writes. Le MondeWhereas Freedom Macron talks about “high stakes”. Especially when it comes to restructuring in left-wing parties, which adds uncertainty to any possible projections.

Doubt on the left

In the last legislative elections, progressive forces managed to become the first opposition group with the Nupes alliance (New Popular Ecologists and Social Union). However, the result of the European elections could mean a change in the balance of power between France Insoumise (LFI), Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party, and the Socialist Party (PS), who have attacked each other on several occasions over the years. Throughout the campaign. In addition, the LFI is experiencing a moment of change, with figures such as François Ruffin or Clémentine Autain trying to gain weight to make up for the loss of the historical leader.

In the PS, the debate will resume on whether you should go to the legislative elections as a coalition. In this case, those reluctant to have a common list will be able to defend that the party is not in a position of weakness for 2022: in the European elections the Socialist list led by Raphaël Glucksmann obtained 13.8%, a significant increase on the 6.19% of the vote Glucksmann obtained in 2019, or 1.75% more than Anne Hidalgo obtained in the first round of the 2022 presidential election (the LFI candidate) with 9.9% of the vote, while the environmentalists obtained 5.5% of the votes.

Parliamentary instability

Since losing the parliamentary majority in the National Assembly in the 2022 legislative elections, Macron and the prime ministers he appointed have had difficulty carrying out any legislative projects: most budget initiatives have had to be approved by decree (including the controversial pension reform) and social reforms, such as the immigration law, were only possible after numerous concessions to the right.

Since then, the French press has speculated on several occasions about a pact between Macron and the Republicans (Gaullist right) to ensure a stable majority, an initiative that would have been defended by former president Nicolas Sarkozy before Macron. One of the hypotheses now being used in the French media is that the president wants to take more positions on the right wing and force to sway the center-right voters who are still loyal to the Gaullist party: either him or the extreme right.

For now, Eric Ciotti, head of the Republicans party, said on Sunday that President Macron’s decision to dissolve the National Assembly following the results of Sunday’s European elections was “the only solution”. Faced with some voices demanding a compromise between the Republicans and the presidential coalition, Ciotti warned that his party would go into the next legislative elections alone, “without any type of alliance, cooperation or collaboration with this power” (referring to Macron) that “has done so much damage to France.”

Another alternative theory, revealed in Freedom Or France Info, is that the president is considering including the far right in the government to demonstrate that, once in power, he is unable to solve the problems they denounce. “This is perhaps Macron’s bet: to demonstrate ahead of 2027 and the next presidential elections that the AN is powerless over the problems of the French. “With the hope that, after testing him for two years as head of government, voters will give up sending the extreme right to the Elysee.”