Why might Trump win?

Nearly four years ago, as the 2020 presidential election recount completed, many analysts warned that the Republican Party must move away from Trump as soon as possible. He warned that their extremism and theatrics are a heavy burden on a political organization that should aspire to represent the diversity of the United States. When his most loyal followers, encouraged by their leader, tried to storm Congress, those same observers reiterated that Trumpism was a thing of the past and warned that Republicans would commit suicide if they did not turn the page quickly. .

Yet here we are, considering the possibility of Donald Trump once again living in the White House after four years. A detailed analysis of the reasons why this might be so would require more space, but we venture to summarize some of the reasons here.

There are two very different realities in the United States. On one side there are big cities. On the other hand, extensive rural areas and medium-sized cities. In new class warMichael Lind explains how the largest cities were filled with highly educated middle classes who embraced progressive values, while vast agricultural areas became vacant and many industrial areas impoverished as companies relocated to other countries. These urban middle classes managed to introduce their concerns (such as climate change or reaping the benefits of globalization) onto the political agenda, but both residents of rural areas and less qualified workers felt that their concerns were ignored, And even they were marginalized to the benefit of the “prevailing urban ideology”. Trump exploits that feeling of abandonment and the resentment it creates. Electoral maps of the most contested states usually show vast red areas (the color of the Republican Party), among which small blue islands stand out (large cities, where Democrats receive high levels of votes).

Furthermore, the largest urban centers are not as homogeneous as many people think. Among them are degraded neighborhoods with high percentages of immigrant populations, creating an optimal breeding ground for Donald Trump’s proposals to alienate his rivals’ electoral base in areas that should be more favorable to him. There is also great diversity among ethnic minorities: in some areas, there is growing reluctance towards the arrival of new immigrants, especially among Latinos; In others, as is the case with Muslims, Democrats’ stance toward Israel or defense of feminism alienates them from Kamala Harris, who may have trouble maintaining Joe Biden’s percentage among African-American voters, because Inflation has been devastating to even the most humble families.

Today, the United States is a bundle of contradictions, and there’s no one like Trump to take advantage of them, taking advantage of the complexity of the world we live in to send simple messages and propose solutions that are as easy as they are simple. There are also useless ones, but which correspond very well with the opinions of a relevant part of the electorate, almost always on poor grounds.

We should also draw attention to the role of social networks, through which false messages and half-truths spread very quickly. Some studies (for example, published by Vossoffi, Roy, and Aral in the journal Science in 2018) have shown that, in them, lies spread more and at a greater speed than true information. The way they work, through algorithms that provide access to content similar to previously viewed content and create a barrier against dissenting voices, reinforces polarization and facilitates the spread of these simple messages. We do. Argumentation, contrary opinions, rigorous debate, along with the creative spirit, barely have a place on social networks, which are fertile ground for Trumpism. While trying to combat it with the same weapons it is often forgotten that neither the medium nor its rules are neutral. This is an unequal battle.

With the support of social networks, but also with the collusion of some large traditional media outlets (quite critical of Trump, almost all of them), Republican candidates have managed to impose their themes during the campaign. With misleading messages, such as the one related to Haitians eating pets, he has managed to bring immigration and insecurity center stage, and many political debate venues talk about his statements instead of addressing other issues such as health. Have dedicated hours to. The lack of care or social services, for which the former president does not have much credit among voters. Their hyperbole, outrage and insults have become the linchpin of the campaign, and Democrats, in trying to counter them, often amplify their influence, uniting Trump’s voters, who would have formed a much more compact bloc than Harris. , which brings together voters with very different opinions on issues such as the invasion of Ukraine, the trade war with China, or the Palestinian conflict, to name just three examples.

Perhaps the Vice President was not the best Democratic choice for this electoral clash (he was by no means the worst choice), although we do not believe that his choice is as decisive for the final outcome as the factors we have. . Referred and which, in our opinion, does not deserve enough attention. It will not be a surprise if Trump becomes president again.