Will the rise of the far right affect the daily life of the EU?

Brussels (EFE).- European elections to renew the European Parliament have certified a rise in seats across the EU for ultra-conservative and far-right parties, which are positioned as leading forces in France, Italy, the Netherlands and Austria.

As a result, they will have greater weight in decisions such as the orientation of the EU budget between 2027 and 2034, the position of the European Parliament in defending the rule of law and European values, future eastward enlargement or when progress is made in implementing climate goals.

The coming weeks and months will determine what their actual capacity to exert influence is, whether they will manage to coordinate their positions across the House, and how day-to-day legislative work across the EU will change.

The commission and council remain as they are

In practice, European elections reshape only one of the three Community institutions that intervene in the legislative process. The European Council (heads of state and government) and the EU Council (ministers of the member states) remain stable, as they only renew their members when elections are held at national level.

This means, for example, that Emmanuel Macron and his ministers would continue to represent France in the Council even if Marine Le Pen won the European elections in France.

A right-leaning parliament might have some influence to sway the confirmation vote of the European Commission president or the approval of his or her team of commissioners, but these will also be politically “multicoloured” because they are sent by their governments.

How might they influence the European Parliament?

Most decisions in the European Parliament require a favourable vote from half of the MEPs who cast their vote, so the combined 131 seats of the Conservatives and Reformists and Identity and Democracy (wait for the like-minded non-registered) are not enough in the 720-seat European Parliament.

To take note, they will need, as has been the case until now, practically the entire European People’s Party, which inherits from the liberals the role of “majority facilitator” in this legislature: the block that the populists support in each vote. The person, whether center-left or extreme right, will take the lead.

Due to the nature of these groups, which often do not have sufficient cohesion or internal structure and respond to national interests rather than those of their European parliamentary group, it becomes difficult to find a stable majority to push legislation through, but they can promote specific amendments.

“It will take longer than other times to draw conclusions from these 27 parallel elections and transform them into a clear parliamentary majority, which in my opinion will be flexible rather than permanent and will change depending on the proposals presented to parliament by the new Commission,” said Alberto Alemanno, professor of EU law at HEC Paris.

How will far-right MEPs be distributed?

The same analyst pointed to the rise of unregistered parties or newcomers without a political family who “could play a role in regrouping existing groups and shaping the new political cycle.”

And after this Sunday’s election the “cake” of the Hemicycle has not yet been fully distributed, with about a hundred MEPs who do not belong to any group or who are new to the European Chamber and have not yet joined one of the already existing ones.

Starting today, you can consider how you fit into existing groups or, if new groups are formed, join them. This will be the case of Alternative for Germany, which will offer 15 seats, or Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz, with 10.

With them and other related groups, it would be arithmetically possible to unite the votes of the populists, the ultra-conservatives, the extreme right and the non-registered voters who are sympathetic to their ideas to achieve, on occasion, the kind of narrow majority that was supposed to overthrow the law of the restoration of nature in the legislature that is now being abolished.

decision by weighted vote

In other decisions within the European Parliament the need for full unanimity in the Chamber disappears. They are taken in parliamentary forums such as the Conference of Presidents (which brings together the institution’s president and the heads of political groups) or by weighted vote among the coordinators of political groups in the various parliamentary commissions.

In these places, the representative of each political group assumes the voice and vote of all its MEPs, with no room for dissent, and – if it manages to reach 361 seats – can make a balance in decisions on the PPE, ECR and ID agenda or legislative work, among others.