Blue dollar and financiers are on fire: how far can they go?
The Blue Dollar and CCL rose $110 and $80 between Monday and Tuesday, driven by BCRA rate cuts, a poor harvest and political uncertainty.
The start of this week in financial matters saw a rebound in the blue dollar and financials, showing gains not seen since January. Analyzing the reasons for this reaction, The market debates whether prices will continue to rise or if it were a simple price change.
Monday to Tuesday The blue dollar jumped $110 to reach $1,230. For its part, the CCL moved in the same direction, rising to nearly $80, leaving it at $1,183, with a gap of 33.1% from the official exchange rate, the highest since February 20.
Most experts agree that the main factor in this acceleration of values is the constant rate reduction Central Bank (BCRA). They similarly influence low supply of dollars for export in the official foreign exchange market (which affects the supply of CCL under the dollar mix scheme) and doubts regarding the adoption of the fundamental law.
A look into the future, from Romano Group they still believe in it “There are still factors that can keep the dollar calm at current levels” as a possible intensification of the liquidation of rough crops or even the constancy of stocks, although They warned that the end of the carry trade, combined with stagnation in the upper house of the main law, could lead to more volatility.
With the same look Delphos Investment recalled in Tuesday’s report that “the long sleep since the last nominal CCL high in January has enabled the very important rollover of various peso instruments with little volatility,” but based on the BCRA rate cut, “this will be necessary to monitor the breadth of this bullish realignment “
For our part, in SBS Groups They maintained their view that the CCL market, and therefore the blue market, is driven primarily by flows and noted that Today, “the key variable to monitor remains the elimination of exports.”especially in agriculture during the months of abundant harvest.”
In this sense, it is worth noting that export liquidations have decreased compared to last week’s figures, remaining below US$300 million per day, which reduces supply in the CCL.
Economist Gustavo Behr agreed in dialogue with Volume that “rate cuts plus political uncertainty” is the combination that encourages parallel dollars, and it is estimated that “The financials, which act as a compass, will have an important test around $1,200.”“The blue market is a retail market and generally follows these guidelines because it activates arbitrage,” he said.
Likewise, an economic analyst Salvador Di Stefano In conversations with this medium, he dared to predict that Perhaps $1,300 is the ceiling for the blue dollar.