Capricorn 35, live | Containment in stock markets in anticipation of the German consumer price index | Financial markets

AdminFebruary 9, 2024

0 82 2 minutes read

What does Ibex 35 do?

Euro Stoxx 500 futures are slightly lower in a session in which the German CPI will be the macro key. Yesterday the Ibex 35 index recovered to 9900 points.

What are the rest of the stock markets doing?

The Hang Seng index, which only worked for half the session due to the Lunar New Year break, fell 0.8% on the outlook for the Chinese economy. The volume of short selling – bets against a security – in Chinese markets fell to its lowest level since July 2020 after the country’s stock market regulator announced measures to limit this type of trading, Hong Kong newspaper South China.MorningPost reported.

Wall Street closed in the green after the S&P 500 briefly touched 5,000 for the first time.

Keys of the day

Yesterday afternoon, the National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) suspended trading of Talgo as a precautionary measure and with immediate effect after its shares on the stock market suddenly soared 10% due to rumors of a public acquisition offer ( takeover bid).
In Europe, an important benchmark is the final German consumer price index data for January. Preliminary data showed inflation at 2.9% year on year, the lowest since June 2021. Data on industrial production in Italy are also known.
The market is waiting to see if they come up with any strategy on interest rates.
In Europe the results of Hermes and Mediobanca will be known, while in the USA the results of PepsiCo stand out.

What do analysts say?

Redmond Wong, head of China strategy at Saxo Bank, says Chinese stocks are “suffering” from challenges and uncertainty. In an uncertain economic climate, China’s stock market decline “goes beyond mere market dynamics and becomes symptomatic of a larger systemic problem,” he says. At the center is a downward trending real estate market.

Martin Wolburg, senior economist at Generali Asset Management, argues that “the first estimate of GDP for the fourth quarter of 2023 showed stagnation, so the eurozone narrowly avoided a technical recession. Early confidence indicators for 2024 support our view of a return to moderate growth in 2024.” He insists that “looking to the future, there are reasons to be more optimistic about this activity. Although they remain at very low levels, confidence indicators are trending upward and forward-looking components point to further improvement.”

In its February strategy, MacroYield noted that “economic strength (especially in the US) in the face of falling inflation allowed the start of the year, along with business results, to avoid the market hangover we had feared, despite some upward adjustments in yield curves. Recession risks appear to have eased somewhat, although inflation risks have increased significantly. However, we are seeing more complacency than resilience in an environment where we continue to see some mild recession in the US, real estate banking sector risks may be undervalued, and geopolitics remain a driver of potentially inflationary uncertainty. . . Despite this, the mitigation of the risk of a very adverse economic scenario forces us to upgrade the rating of emerging assets.”