The founder of the exchange predicts a decline of 30%


  • Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, expected Bitcoin to fall 30% in the first quarter of 2024.
  • “I’m preparing for a brutal crackdown on all crypto tourists this March,” he wrote on his blog.
  • Likewise, Hayes believes that BTC will rise between January and February and that the correction will be “healthy” before resuming its uptrend again.

Arthur Hayesco-founder of BitMEX, made a comment that surprised the entire crypto market, stating that Bitcoin will fall by 30% in the first quarter of the year.

I’m preparing for a brutal defeat of all crypto tourists in March of this year“, he wrote on his blog, pointing out that selling some of their positions in this context.

Three Reasons Bitcoin Will Fall

  1. Reverse Repurchase Program (RRP) which, if it approaches zero as expected, markets will experience a slowdown. Additionally, he attributed the fall in PVP’s balance sheet to the liquidity injection and the need for alternative sources to maintain market momentum.
  2. Update to the Bank Term Financing Program (BTFP). If that doesn’t happen on March 12th (which could happen in an election year), banks won’t have the money to exchange for Treasuries.
  3. The Fed meets on March 20 and is expected to announce its first rate cut. If this does not happen, it will affect the stock market as well as the cryptocurrency market.

What’s next for Bitcoin?

The co-founder of the exchange said that he hopes that January and February will be optimistic for the leading cryptocurrency thanks to the launch of a spot Bitcoin ETF that will be approved soonsaid.

I hope Bitcoin experiences healthy correction from 20% to 30% from the level it reached in early March. The failure could have been even more severe if the Bitcoin ETF had already begun trading.


The expert emphasized that hundreds of billions of dollars of fiat money will flow into the BTC ETF, which will bring the price closer to a record high of $69,000.

One could easily see a 30-40% correction due to the fall in dollar liquidity.“added the businessman.

It should be noted that Hayes is optimistic about the future of Bitcoin: “With these short-term market turmoil over, cryptocurrencies could soar again amid speculation about the impact of the upcoming Bitcoin block reward halving.“.

Hayes has said in several interviews that he is designing Bitcoin to one million dollars in the coming years.

BTC is up 1.7% in the last 24 hours to just over $44,000.

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