Tropical wave with probability of development threatens to increase the volume of rains this weekend

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A tropical wave that is located over the center of the tropical Atlantic Ocean and that has a medium probability of cyclonic development could increase the development of rains during this coming weekend, warned this morning the National Weather Service (SNM) in San Juan.

In his 8:00 am outlook on conditions in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center (NHC, in English) estimated the probability that this wave will develop in the next 48 hours (five days) at 10% and at 50% for the next five days.

“At the moment, there are several discrepancies between the models. Therefore, the confidence of the models is very low and it is too early to determine what, if any, will be the direct impacts that this tropical wave will have for the area “pointed out the meteorologist Lee Ann Inglés Serrano, in an interview with The new day.

However, the expert affirmed that what does continue to gain certainty is the rain forecast for the weekend, judging by the projections of the main global models. Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European (ECMWF).

With this in mind, Inglés Serrano urged the entire population to make decisions now regarding what to do and how to prepare for the weekend, because the state of the soil is susceptible to severe flooding, landslides of land and sinkholes or subsidence in areas where the ground is weak.

“Regardless of whether it develops or not, right now the plan is to think about what to do given the situation that we have right now. If more rain comes this weekend, what should I do? And determine the action with the information we are providing”he advised.

“People need to take this information that we have at hand and take action. The information we have is that it would be an increase in rains, which is what worries us now”, he added.

The tropical wave, which has not yet been recognized as an Invest zone for development potential, is moving toward the Caribbean, where it will encounter mild wind shear, moist air and warm surface water temperatures, so it will have favorable environment for gradual development.

If it is called an investigation zone, the wave would be identified as the Invest 98L.

However, at the time of this publication, global models do not project this disturbance happening near or over Puerto Rico. On the contrary, they project it keeping to the south over the Caribbean Sea.

However, the moisture that it will carry with it will be capable of producing rain in the region.

“They cannot wait to see if it develops or not, because we are already going through a very difficult situation and decisions must be made now with the information we have. Any rain that falls in the next few days will cause flooding and landslides.”, said the expert.

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