Ukraine faces war disaster against Russia with relief of its military leadership

The dismissal of Ukrainian army commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny reflects a battle at the top of power in Kiev, but does not guarantee a change of direction in the war against Russia. Shortages of ammunition and fresh troops, and a Republican blockade of millions of dollars of needed US aid, paint a bleak picture for Ukraine just days before their completion. Two years after the start of the Russian invasionOn 24 February.

In a video published on his Telegram account, President Volodymyr Zelensky stressed that Ukraine It “requires urgent changes” in its military strategy. and chose “a new approach to mobilization and recruitment”, shaken by the dark reality that he could not renew his troops at the front.

Zelensky recognized impossibility of Ukrainian army To meet its objectives on the ground with the counter-offensive launched last June, i.e. the recovery of territory under Russian control. And he expressed his hope that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can control air warfare with the use and mass production of drones.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister, Rustam Umerov, indicated a few hours ago that it was necessary to replace Ukraine’s military leadership with the changes made this Thursday by Zelensky, and which led to the restructuring and appointment of the army leadership. oleksandr sirsky As Zaluzin’s replacement at the post of Chief of the Armed Forces.

A new vision of war

Rustam Umerov: “War is not the same; it changes and demands change”

Umerov said, “War is not the same; it changes and demands change.” The new Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Army was until now responsible for the ground forces and the change is intended to improve relations between the military leadership and the Ukrainian Armed Forces. politburo Zelensky, with whom Zaluzny had deep disagreements in recent months.

The popularity of the so-called “Iron General” was beginning to irritate the President, who was none too pleased that a soldier hardened in direct resistance against the Russians could become a fearsome figure. election opponent When can elections be held in Ukraine?

Zaluzny, now named “Hero of Ukraine” For his services, he did not hesitate to criticize Zelensky excessive optimism While focusing on the progress of the war, without reflecting this enthusiasm in greater success in obtaining more weapons and money from Ukraine’s allies.

Sirsky is a very experienced military man and is responsible for many of Ukraine’s victories. But He is also a Zelensky man And with them the President will not risk being exposed or having his strategy for Ukraine called into question.

In this sense, Zelensky is emphasizing the need to prioritize his “new vision” of war. Greater importance for war technology and better rotation and training of the army, as Ukrainian reserve colonel Sergiu Grabsky emphasized in an interview with the EFE agency.

Zelensky’s drones

The President has a special passion drone, Which is equipped with explosives and capable of reaching Moscow, capable of delivering some precision strikes on Russian aviation, navy and logistics. There are many colorful attacks to present in the news or to promote publicity, but they are rarely effective when it comes to overturning the competition.

These are drones manufactured in private homes or factories in Ukraine

There is certainly a great need for drones, but the Western military industry is demanding it And not in private homes or factories in Ukraine Which are easy targets for Russian attacks.

need even more long range missiles, cannons with ranges capable of attacking Russian territory, shells for these cannons, many more tanks and a sufficient number of aircraft to intimidate or at least deter Russia from possible new attacks. And the West no longer appears willing to empty its arsenal to ensure that supply, as it has done so far.

In these two years of war, Ukraine has used Western precision and sophisticated weapons Against a Russian army that was at first mired in anarchy and arrogance in relying on its numerical superiority, a mistake in the early stages of the war that led to the defeat of summer–autumn 2022 in the area of ​​Kharkiv and Kherson.

Moscow has learned from its mistakes

But in this time, Russia has learned very quickly from its mistakes. The Ukrainians’ initial strategic advantage has been overcome With a better strategy, the Ukrainian army would copy many of the Western methods of waging war and adopt them according to its superiority in weapons and men.

Ukraine has been forced to make changes to avoid complete defeat.

For this reason, the latest generation combat systems brought to Ukraine by the West have not achieved the expected effectiveness. Russia, the first year and a half of the war Rearranged its entire combat system And now it is Ukraine that is forced to make changes to avoid complete defeat.

Throughout 2023, Neither of the two contenders achieved decisive success, The front line remained practically unchanged despite the huge loss of human lives trying to break through it. The Russian capture of Bakhmut was intended to be used by the Kremlin as a symbolic victory, but it was an unexpected success that did not open the doors to the West for the Russians.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive launched last summer also remained inconclusive Many people from both sides diedBut without any significant progress.

The battles taking place today around the city of Avdiivka, transformed into the second Bakhmut, now point to more Russian strategy to reduce Ukrainian resistanceRemove troops by counteroffensive from other vulnerable spots on the front and, if this city is overrun, which is already reduced to ruins, Clear that path to the west.

Russian strategic advantage

In this context, it is Russian position that enjoys a certain strategic advantage, It has protected part of occupied Ukraine, about a fifth of the country, including the Crimean peninsula captured in 2014, and, above all, it has armored the front line for almost a thousand kilometers. The Ukrainian counter-offensive against it failed.

As time goes on, this front becomes even stronger with mines, tank traps and bunkers, an almost invincible firewall. A massive attack would be necessary Hundreds of tanks and aircraft (which Ukraine lacks), as well as thousands of soldiers, To overcome those defenses and regain a large part of the territory conquered by the Russians.

However, the Russians are ready and waiting patiently. Time will work in your favor.

America and Europe have entered the logic of the geopolitical game where the dead are kept by the Ukrainians and Russians

Ukrainians themselves are already beginning to see what the Americans have been warning about for some time, and what the Europeans are refusing to accept, immersed in the logic of geopolitical games where the dead will be shared between Ukrainians and Russians. Is maintained by. Territorial damage to Ukraine is an impossible task at this time and may already be irreversibly ruined.

Western help to prevent further damage

and yet, Ukraine needs Western money and weapons more than ever. Following the Korean example, the Russians are plotting new attacks in Donbass to expand the potential demilitarized zone in the event of an armistice, which would ensure the Russianness of the already occupied territories and which would be an intolerable threat to Ukraine’s European aspirations. Will be a burden.

This is the reality. Ukraine needs Western arms, and especially American arms, not only to reclaim territory, but also to avoid losing more. So in recent days there have been arguments from Kiev regarding the real possibility of The United States stopped distributing more money and war materials For Ukraine.

Without US help, Ukraine cannot withstand another year of war

There is still hope, even if just a little. This week a bill promoted by the White House but supported by Republican and Democratic senators, which sought to secure $60 billion in aid to Ukraine, was rejected in the US Senate, taking up action this Thursday Another legislative attempt to provide funds without which Kiev could not endure another year of war.

Now the full Senate will have to vote on this new project, which is actually a White House opening issue without involving the thorny immigration issue in the US, one of extreme friction between Republicans and Democrats. But even if it passes that screening, the House of Representatives must decide whether to support the aid proposal. And it’s not at all clear that that’s going to happen.

Tired of facing a war that no one can win

Few in the US Congress believe the argument that the West should defeat Russia in Ukraine To avoid fighting it on NATO territoryNo matter how much it is repeated again and again by the Secretary General of this organization Jens Stoltenberg and other European leaders.

Americans are beginning to get tired of contributing tens of billions of dollars (75 billion so far) A war that is not going as expected And in which the “old” Russian war machine was about to collapse within a few months.

The Russians have adapted to the dynamics of the conflict and are now producing more weapons than ever before, without letting their economy collapse despite sanctions. To the consternation of Ukraine and its European allies, the reality is this: without money from Washington, without the American missile shields that now protect Ukrainian cities, without the ammunition to stop the Russian advance, Dialogue will be necessary, but Russia will impose it on its own terms.

In a controversial interview with him by American journalist Tucker Carlson, Russian President Vladimir Putin pressed that button: “Negotiations for a peace deal depend on Washington,