War in Gaza “Netanyahu knows Hamas’ survival would mean its defeat”: analysis by BBC International Editor Jeremy Bowen
image Source, EPA-EFE
- Author, jeremy bowen
- Role, bbc international editor
After months of intense negotiations between Israel and Hamas and a group of mediating countries, the time has come to make difficult decisions.
According to Benjamin Netanyahu, Hamas has accepted the proposed ceasefire agreement which “falls far from meeting Israel’s demands”. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister has considered it necessary to send a delegation to study it.
Israel accepted the ceasefire proposal in late April. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the offer was “extraordinarily generous”.
Bridging the differences between Israel’s version and the one accepted by Hamas remains a major challenge for negotiators in Cairo. Diplomatic sources in Qatar, which is part of mediation efforts with Egypt and the United States, assured me that it “can be said broadly, Same proposal from Israel also, “Only minor changes were made to terminology and description.”
However, Israel may explain, that the differences are not trivial, A major problem is that Hamas wants the ceasefire to be permanent, not temporary, followed by Israel’s withdrawal from Gaza.
If the US delegation, led by CIA chief William Burns, believes differences between the two can be overcome, Netanyahu may believe there will be pressure from Washington to accept.
image Source, reuters
“There are two ways to look at Hamas’ strategy”
As of Monday afternoon, Israel was under the impression that Hamas would reject the ceasefire proposal. Like most foreign analysts, Benjamin Netanyahu and his government were surprised when the Palestinian Islamic Organization announced its decision.
There are two ways of looking at Hamas’ strategy. can be explained like a desperate measure By an organization that was exhausted and almost destroyed by Israel’s long offensive.
or the like a smart political move Due to which the pressure on Netanyahu has increased. That explanation is more credible, because it has distorted Israel’s plans and perceptions.
We know that Israel calculated the next phase of the war on the assumption that Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, who has been in hiding since October 7, would never accept a ceasefire.
Israel used the absence of a ceasefire proposal from Hamas to support its decision to launch the Rafah military operation. And the United States has made it clear that it is against any ground action in the city that could threaten the lives of more Palestinian civilians.
image Source, getty images
As Israel warned about 100,000 Palestinians to leave their homes on Monday morning, its Defense Minister Yoav Galant told his US counterpart that There was no option but to attack To Rafa.
He argued that this was because Hamas had rejected all proposals for a temporary ceasefire and the release of hostages. A few hours later, Hamas announced this and exposed Israel’s deception.
Netanyahu, “under strong pressure”
Netanyahu is in trouble politically. His governing style during more than 16 years as Israel’s leader has been characterized by postpone difficult decisions,
However, you are now under severe pressure on all fronts and although it may be very tempting to buy time, it is time to make a decision.
the most intense pressure comes two ultranationalist jewish extremists His cabinet included: Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, and National Security Minister, Itamar Ben Gvir.
Netanyahu needs their votes to keep his coalition in power. They want Israel to capture Rafah and have threatened to overthrow the government if it does not do so. They believe that ceasefire is equivalent to surrender.
At the same time, families and supporters of Israeli hostages have demonstrated on the streets, blocking some of the country’s main roads. Demand that Israel accept an agreement This allows them to return home.
The families of the hostages are supported by the war cabinet of two opposition leaders, Benny Gantz and Gaby Eisenkot, who joined the body after the October 7 attacks. If hostage kidnappings continue in the absence of a ceasefire, he may leave the government.
image Source, getty images
And Americans also want a deal. President Biden’s support for Israel, despite the large number of deaths of Palestinian civilians, is costing him political support in the United States.
If Biden decides that is an acceptable version of the ceasefire, Will put pressure on Netanyahu to accept this,
The Israeli leader must choose between the survival of his government and the significant support the US President has provided in recent months.
The general opinion in Israel is this Netanyahu wants to prolong the war To postpone the moment of accountability for the errors that allowed Hamas on October 7 to kill approximately 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and take 240 hostages in Gaza.
The ceasefire would also mean that Benjamin Netanyahu has not achieved “complete victory” over Hamas, one of his two main war goals. The second is the release of the hostages, which has also not been achieved.
This war once again shows how difficult it is for powerful countries like Israel to defeat a weak organization like Hamas.
For Hamas, survival means victory, And Benjamin Netanyahu knows that, for him, it would be a defeat.
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