(CNN Spanish) — 2024 will be a year full of elections on all five continents. According to the Center for American Progress, more than 2 billion voters in 50 countries around the world will vote in record numbers. Therefore, it is likely that these elections will define the future of the planet and humanity for the next period.
Paradoxically, the results of those elections may reflect a growing threat to the health of democracy rather than its strength.
Presidential elections in Taiwan in January could trigger a period of new tension with China. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to head for a rare third term in the world’s largest democracy. And while Russian elections will be a formality, Vladimir Putin wants to retain power until 2030 even amid mounting military losses in Ukraine. On the other side of the divide, Volodymyr Zelensky can also measure his popularity in the polls and his military strategy. Ultimately, there will be elections in the United States in which controversy-ridden Donald Trump – and so far banned from the primary ballots of at least two states – will seek electoral revenge after his defeat in 2020.
“The current global context is marked by distrust in institutions and misinformation that impacts public discussion, added to the advent of new technologies such as regenerative AI, which worsen existing risks and reduce barriers to contributing to the ecosystem. International tensions are also rising, “including recent wars and the growing willingness of politicians to pit their citizens against other countries for political gain,” Meghan Shahi, director of the Center for American Progress, said in an email.
Shahi says this year’s global elections will show whether people continue to turn their backs on democratic norms and look for alternatives, “or whether they correct their path when they see the dangers of the path we’re on.” will that do.” “There are many risks; the most significant is that we are experiencing a global trend of a sharp decline in democracy as the ideal governance structure in people’s minds, as well as the acceptance of leaders who serve collective interests rather than Imposing their own agenda.” ” he explained.
Here is a review of the elections that could change the political direction of the world in the coming years:
Donald Trump, surrounded by controversies, is going to take his revenge in America.
There will be a number of elections in the United States in 2024: several primaries during the year to define the candidates of the two main parties – Republicans and Democrats – and a presidential election in the month of November.
Republican race favorite Donald Trump will look to represent his party while facing multiple legal battles, including two federal indictments. Additionally, for the time being, he is off the primary ballots in the states of Maine and Colorado, following recent rulings regarding his role in the insurrection at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. These state decisions were appealed by Trump’s legal team
On the Democratic side, Joe Bien is the current President and has already announced that he will run for re-election, thus becoming the incumbent candidate. However, there are some Democrats who could challenge him in the primary, including Representative Dean Phillips of Minnesota and author Marianne Williamson. But he has not yet received much support, at least in opinion polls.
No matter what happens, Mexico will have a president
Mexico will elect its first president in June 2024, after Claudia Sheinbaum and Xochitl Gálvez emerged favorites in an electoral contest. Although she is not the first woman to aspire to the presidency of Mexico (six others have already done so), she is the first woman to achieve the consensus of support of the main political parties in the country.
Claudia Sheinbaum will compete for the ruling National Regeneration Movement (MURRENA) and its allies, Labor (PT) and Green Ecologists of Mexico (PVEM). On the opposition side, Xochitl Gálvez will be the candidate of the Broad Front for Mexico, a coalition that brings together the National Action (PAN), Institutional Revolutionary (PRI) and Democratic Revolution (PRD) parties.
This is an open election in which drug trafficking, organized crime and migration to the US will dominate the political agenda.
Despite opposition criticism, Bukele is seeking re-election in El Salvador
El Salvador will go to the polls on February 4, with Nayib Bukele set to run for re-election despite questions from the opposition, which asserts that at least five articles of the constitution prevent a candidate from running for re-election. Government Order.
The Supreme Court, with a pro-government majority, determined that to prevent a president opting for re-election from remaining in office, he or she must leave office six months before the start of a new term. Because of this, Bukele requested leave from 30 November to devote himself to the election campaign.
According to some polls such as Sid Gallup, after four years in office, Bukele is seeking re-election with a high level of popularity, largely built around his security policies. However, human rights defenders at home and abroad question his methods as they consider them a violation of human rights.
There is no certainty about the candidates of the ruling party and opposition in Venezuela
Venezuela will also vote in 2024, although the election date and who the ruling party and opposition candidates will be are yet to be defined.
On the side of the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), it was recently Nicolás Maduro himself – in power for 10 years since the death of Hugo Chávez – who questioned his candidacy, saying in an interview that it was “time “Before” such definition.
But there is no greater certainty than this from the opposition. In October 2023, the Venezuelan National Primary Commission (CNP) declared María Corina Machado as the winner of the opposition primaries for the elections scheduled for 2024.
However, Machado has been disqualified by Venezuela’s Comptroller General for allegedly not including food bonus payments in his asset declaration. The opposition leader says the disqualification is illegal.
The European Parliament will be the only supranational election
After five years, the European Parliament will go to the polls between June 6 and 9, 2024, for a new restructuring that could change the fate of the bloc. According to experts, the nine countries that will vote for their MEPs this year should expect that the trend of political fragmentation and difficulties in forming a majority will continue.
Disillusionment with traditional parties and politics in general will also lead, as has been the case so far, to the emergence or strengthening of marginal parties, many of them radical, as is the case of Vox in Spain. It is also possible that, paradoxically, the Eurosceptic position will prevail in the next parliament of the European bloc.
In particular, these elections will occasion the rise of populist parties, which are against immigration and the extreme right in other countries, including France, Germany and Belgium.
Russia and Ukraine, elections on both sides of the divide
Russia’s war in Ukraine will turn two years old on February 24, and elections in both countries will act as a thermometer for both sides that could define the course of the conflict from now on.
In the case of Russia, presidential elections are perhaps the closest we can get to a kind of political theater. Putin has no serious rivals, as his most prominent rival, Alexei Navalny, is in a prison some 65 kilometers north of the Arctic Circle, and sympathetic media outlets portray the current president as Russia’s indispensable figurehead. But this spring’s vote will be an important public rite of passage for the Kremlin leader, securing power through the end of the decade.
Although 2024 was the planned year for presidential elections in Ukraine, there are still questions about the relevance of holding them amid a conflict entering its third year.
In any case, President Volodymyr Zelensky will face shortages of ammunition and equipment as he tries to deal with the difficulties of a world that has added a new conflict – that of Israel and Hamas – in the Middle East. and division among the countries of its Western allies, primarily the US and Europe.
Elections in the world’s largest democracy: India
The world’s most important elections—from a demographic perspective—will be held in India during April and May.
Current Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to win a third term with his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) pursuing popular but religiously divisive politics. Despite problems related to inflation and purchasing power, Modi enjoys widespread support among India’s Hindu majority on the basis of patriotism and a confident foreign policy. Critics respond that India’s founding spirit, which was once secular and democratic, is being left behind and minorities feel unsafe.
Elections in Taiwan and conflict across the strait
The 2024 electoral agenda will open with tension-ridden elections when Taiwan votes on who will align with China for the next four years. If the winner is Lai Ching-teh of the Democratic Progressive Party, previously a staunch supporter of Taiwan independence, relations with Beijing are expected to deteriorate or remain frozen. Rival candidates from the Kuomintang (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party promise to create less friction with China, although all three parties oppose the “one country, two systems” principle promoted by Beijing.
With reporting from CNN’s Bianca Nobilo, Stephen Collinson, Nathan Hodge, Ivonne Valdes, Marilyn Delcid and Krupskaya Ellis