Will Hague’s decision change the course of the war in Gaza?

The International Court of Justice this Friday ordered Israel to implement a series of precautionary measures to stop the massacre in the Gaza Strip, which has taken more than 26,400 lives in a four-month military campaign; Destroyed more than half the homes in Gaza and forced internal displacement of approximately 2 million residents.

The resolution, following a lawsuit submitted by South Africa in late December, rejects one of its requests for an immediate ceasefire, but supports the South African thesis that the UN Court, based in The Hague, Able to decide whether Israel is committing genocide in Gaza, a case that could take years to reach a final verdict, Furthermore, the Court found that South Africa’s claim that Israel is committing genocide in Gaza is plausible.

Israel continues military operations

The most immediate question is the actual impact of this process on the ground., in a military conflict that pits Israeli troops against the armed wings of Hamas and other Palestinian Islamic movements. Israel has promised to continue the military campaign with which, according to Tel Aviv, it seeks to eliminate Hamas. “We will continue to do whatever is necessary to defend our country and our people,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Friday after learning of the court order.

Over the past 48 hours, Israel Defense Forces have continued intense bombardment in Khan Yunis, south of the Strip, and have been the scene of “heavy fighting.” At least 165 people died on Saturday. The Gaza Health Ministry has condemned that hospitals in the area are in critical condition due to the siege and attacks by Israeli troops. “This decision will not necessarily have an immediate impact on the way the Israel Defense Forces operate, because, according to the Israeli government, they already comply with international law; “They do not accept the fact that they have violated international humanitarian law and they will try to continue as they have done over the last two months,” he said. Independent andreas craigSenior Lecturer in the School of Security Studies at King’s College London.

What is going to change is that from now on the international community will put more pressure on Israel to end the war

The decision to impose precautionary measures on Israel – although the Jewish state has also not said whether it will comply with them – sends a message to Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. “What is going to change is that from now on the international community will put more pressure on Israel to end the war, especially with regard to compliance with international humanitarian law. The Court itself will examine any evidence provided by civilians and journalists, even if they are in a public space, and will be used as evidence in a potential case before the ICJ that would deal with whether Israel instigated or No. And the extent of the genocide in Gaza,” says Craig.

Tel Aviv faces a dilemma: if it complies with the measures ordered by the Court, it must “de facto” limit its military operations in Gaza to guarantee, among other aspects, that humanitarian Aid can be delivered and distributed across the entire belt. Israel could not attack civilians waiting for humanitarian aid or those in shelters or hospitals.

According to the ICJ proposal, Israel has one month to tell the court what it is doing to comply with all measures to stop acts of genocide in Gaza., Nearly four months after the Hamas attacks, the initial sympathy for Israel in international public opinion is waning, while Western support is also being questioned. The British expert says, “The freedom of maneuver that Israel had in the first weeks of the war has been eliminated and I think the ICJ case only adds to this.” “This is something that will also shape how the media reports and how civil society or the global public sphere takes a position.”

Netanyahu’s story compromised

Even if it is symbolic, the order damages the narrative Israel has so far maintained to justify its retaliation for the Hamas attack in Gaza on October 7, which killed nearly 1,200 people. He said, “Israel’s arguments about Israel’s ‘right to defend itself’, ‘Palestinian terrorism is the root cause of all violence’, ‘this is anti-Semitism’ and others were dealt another blow by the ICJ decision Is.” muhannad debaucheryProfessor of sociology at the Canadian University of Mount Royal and renowned expert on the Israeli–Palestinian conflict.

The ICJ sends a clear message to Israel and the world: that turning a blind eye to reality will no longer work

“Although, disappointingly, the ICJ did not include an immediate ceasefire as part of the measures sought from Israel, it ruled that the genocide case against Israel was plausible and therefore ignored Israeli arguments,” Ayyash is charged with. “The ICJ has sent a clear message to Israel and the world: that its evasion from reality will no longer work, to the extent that institutions that are, frankly, structurally designed to support Euro-American hegemony , they can understand them too.” , and they declare it publicly and officially.

This revision of the official narrative also weakens Netanyahu and his war commitment. “The voices of those who say that this war does nothing and that it is an unwinnable war are becoming louder, even in the War Cabinet there are more and more members speaking out against Netanyahu. “They believe that this war cannot be won and that the hostages need to be released through a diplomatic agreement that will only be achieved in a permanent ceasefire that can end the war one way or another,” Craig confirmed.

Pressure on America is increasing

The Hague Court’s precautionary resolution may be particularly sensitive for countries that have so far supported Israel’s strategy under the leadership of the Biden administration. Provisional measures ordered by the Court “have binding effect and therefore create international legal obligations for any Party to whom the provisional measures are directed.” South African Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, naledi pandorDeclared that if the ICJ determined that genocide had occurred, the states that aided and abetted it would be considered parties to the commission of the crime under the Convention.

This decision will put pressure on countries like the United States and the United Kingdom to help Israel end the war.

Since October, Washington has maintained a non-critical position and full support for Netanyahu, which has softened in recent weeks, given growing misgivings within Democrats and the unpopularity of the conflict in the middle of an election year in the United States. And in view of the censorship of Arab allies. The Biden administration has used its veto power to block all resolutions in the UN Security Council that sought to demand an end to hostilities in Gaza.

Craig says, “This decision will put pressure on countries like the United States and the United Kingdom to help Israel end this war.” An exercise in distancing itself from Netanyahu’s strategy that could prompt the US administration to do what it has so far avoided: put the only pressure on Israel that would reduce the intensity of the conflict or force its end. Can work for.

“Human rights organizations have already launched domestic legal proceedings against US and British officials over aid to Israel. Although legally separate from the ICJ cases, they are based on the same law. “If the ICJ were to determine that Israel is committing genocide, states that have helped Israel could also face cases before the ICJ,” he warned. Celeste KmiotekCounsel to the American think tank Atlantic Council.

A risk that could trigger a ceasefire now. According to the American press, Washington will consider the possibility of reducing arms supplies to Israel as a preventive measure. After weeks of standoff, CIA-led talks with the help of Qatar and Egypt are making progress for a two-month ceasefire in Gaza and the phased release of Hamas hostages.

Against the backdrop of the arms sales, the EU, divided in its condemnation of Israeli actions, may also be forced to reconsider its relations with Israel. “From a grassroots activism standpoint, I think it opens the door for more people around the world to send a clear message to their governments and institutions: By taking Israel’s side you are complicit in genocide, and its There will be material legal and economic ramifications. The hope is that popular power can generate greater pressure on Israel, isolating it economically and politically,” Ayyash says.

Global South, on stage

The fighting in recent weeks has brought the so-called global South to the fore. South Africa has led a lawsuit in which Western countries have avoided taking their side, underscoring criticism of the double standards faced by Arab countries since the start of the war by drawing comparisons with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. .

He underlined, “By attempting to publicly highlight the magnitude of the damage caused by the Israeli attack against Gaza, South Africa leads the Global South in rejecting the notion that international law has selective applicability.” tuka nusairat, expert on US Middle East policy at the Atlantic Council. “The case also rejects the idea that Western leaders can continue to obstruct efforts to end the ongoing suffering of innocent civilians in Gaza and to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict more comprehensively in forums such as the UN Security Council Are.” He said, “South Africa managed to draw the world’s attention to the total destruction being carried out by Israel in Gaza, thereby forcing Israel to stand trial for the crimes it has committed in much of the world over the past 110 days. Has been observed.”

South African President on Friday Cyril Ramaphosa Claiming the country’s history and legacy was marked by apartheid, he said: “Some people have told us that we should mind our own affairs and not get involved in the affairs of other countries, and yet a man who “This is our place as someone who knows too well the pain of dispossession, discrimination, state-sponsored violence.”