Technology

The next big economic crisis would come in 2023, but with bitcoin it would be different

Guessing the future is out of our hands. But based on data analysis, it could be said that there is a high probability that in the year 2023 there will be a recession. That is, a sharp decline in commercial and industrial activity, which affects wages, employment and different areas of the economy. This was alerted on March 7, 2022 by the analyst flix1.

The appreciation of flix1 is given after the analysis of an indicator that has warned of the recessions of the 20th and 21st centuries with 100% effectiveness, as described in a Medium post. This tool has detected, with a margin of 12-18 months in advance, various recession scenarios in the United States in 1980, 1982, 1990, 2001, 2008 and until 2020 with the unpredictable pandemic.

The indicator that predicted all those crises is “yield curve inversion.” This data arises from the comparison of the United States Treasury bond in a term of 10 and 2 years. When the index is negative, then a recession is looming. Something that it could happen again in 2023, since this calculation is currently very close to the zero line, as seen in the following graph.

Advertising

Whenever this chart is close to hitting the zero line, a recession occurs 12-18 months later. Source: medium.com

The 2023 recession would be the worst in 40 years

The analyst points out that the combination of recession and high price increases brings us a negative scenario that has not been seen since the 1980s. The inflation that the United States is currently going through is the highest it has had in the last 30 years.

“The high indebtedness of Western countries, whose governments have spent well beyond their means in recent years, especially in 2020 and 2021, leads us to a situation that brings together the worst of the 2012 debt crisis with the real estate crisis. and financial year 2008,” stated flix1.

That’s why it could be the next great economic crisis at a global level, since the financial problems of the United States impact the world due to its high economic activity. A situation that could be encouraged by the war that Russia started against Ukraine, with the threat of attacking any other country that turns against it.

Someone who also believes that there will be a recession in 2023 is the Argentine economist Natalia Motyl. Since November 2021 she has been warning his followers “fasten their belts” because there is still more unemployment, inflation, currency devaluation, fiscal deficit and poverty to come.

He believes that the “economic mess” is just around the corner. For this reason, he wants the Argentine government to carry out an urgent structural reform, just as he asks the people to prepare.

From Spain, Álvaro D. María, the author of the book “The philosophy of Bitcoin“, also visualizes this panorama. Via Twitter, manifested this March 7: «We are at the gates of a mega political and economic crisis. The cost of preparing is very low, the cost of being caught unprepared is too high.”

Bitcoin, possible alternative to overcome the recession

The recession could increase the purchase and price of bitcoin (BTC), considering that the financial crisis of 2008 was the starting point of its creation. Something that encouraged its adoption, as well as in 2020 with the economic crisis caused by the covid-19 pandemic, as reported by CriptoNoticias.

Flix1 said: “It is important to have a well-prepared strategy for this increasingly likely recession scenario in 2023.” Thinking about it, it indicates that bitcoin offers a good alternative to overcome that economic crisis that could occur.

However, he considers that the cryptocurrency market is still too small to accommodate the massive outflows of more traditional asset flight. For this reason, he estimates that the situation could allow gold and energy commodities to regain a leading role not seen since the stagflation of the 1980s.

In addition, he warns that liquidity is a bad option in times of high inflation, with which the real estate market and agriculture could resist with great geographical divergence. Especially in these times of great mobility of remote workers.

Source link

Related Articles

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

Back to top button